Upbeat over a normal monsoon and the robust industry and services sectors, the RBI today raised its projections for economic growth to 8.5 per cent this fiscal. The earlier estimate was 8 per cent. It, however warned that a global slowdown may cast a shadow on the economy. The RBI's projection is in line with the government and the Prime Minister's economic think-tank PMEAC's forecast for the fiscal. However, it is less than the optimistic forecast of 9.5 per cent made by the IMF for this calendar year. The central bank said in its quarterly monetary review unveiled in Mumbai that the growth prospects of the Indian economy have improved since April, 2010. Although cumulative rainfall so far has been 14 per cent below, the long period average, the monsoon has been better than last year. The RBI said that rising demand in the rural economy will further give momentum to the performance of the industrial sector, which has been growing firmly since October, 2009. However, uncertainty about the global recovery may cast its shadow on India, the central bank warned.Meanwhile, In order to address to the rapidly evolving macro economic situation, the RBI said that it would review its economic policy in 45 days instead of presently 90 days.Addressing media after presenting the first quarter review of the monetary policy in Mumbai today, RBI Governor D. Subbarao said the Reserve Bank will now undertake mid-quarter reviews roughly at the interval of about one and half months after each quarterly review.As per schedule, mid-quarter reviews will be in June, September, December and March. In a rapidly evolving macro-economic situation, the RBI said, a gap of a quarter between policy reviews can be too long and many central banks around the world made their policy announcements more frequently, ranging generally from 8 to 12 announcements in a year.Meanwhile, The Reserve Bank today expected inflation to come down to 6 per cent by the end of this fiscal from the current level of over 10 per cent, but said high rate of price rise is likely to continue for some more time as demand pressures are building up in the economy.Earlier, the apex bank had projected inflation at 5.5 per cent by March 2011, and the latest higher estimate is on account of the impact of fuel price hike.
News On AIR | July 27, 2010 6:26 PM
RBI revises economic growth projection