February 7, 2011 6:00 PM

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Govt estimates 8.6 % GDP growth; FM says, it’s satisfactory in face of rising inflation, trade imbalances

Led by a smart recovery in farm output, the government estimated economic growth for the current financial year at 8.6 per cent, as against 8 per cent a year ago. According to Advance Estimates released by the Central Statistical Organisation, CSO today GDP growth projection is higher than the forecasts made by the Reserve Bank of India and Finance Ministry earlier. According to data released, agriculture and allied activities are projected to grow by 5.4 per cent this fiscal, as against 0.4 per cent a year ago.Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee had exuded confidence that the economy would grow by 8.5 per cent despite rising inflation. The RBI had also projected that the economy would expand by 8.5 per cent in its quarterly monetary policy review last month. Growth this fiscal is likely to be driven by 8.8 per cent expansion in the manufacturing sector, the same as in the year-ago period. According to the advance estimates, mining and quarrying is likely to grow by 6.2 per cent, compared to 6.9 per cent a year ago, while electricity, gas and water production will grow up by 5.1 per cent, as against 6.4 per cent in the previous fiscal. Encouraged by the 8.6 per cent growth rate estimate for the current fiscal, Chief Economic Advisor Kaushik Basu today said that 9 per cent economic expansion for the next financial year is well within target.Basu told reporters in New Delhi, that the prospects for the world as a whole are looking better, but still, there are uncertain clouds. He said that in such as scenario, India's 8.6 per cent growth forecast is absolutely remarkable.On inflation, Basu said he doesn't really see inflation disrupting the growth process. He said the GDP number, in fact, will have a dampening effect on inflationary expectations. He further said that the growth rate for the next two quarters also looks encouraging, but the IIP number, which has been fluctuating, is to be watched.

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