The crucial southwest monsoon rains in the country will be deficient this year. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said this in an update to the Monsoon forecast on Thursday. Experts say this is the first indication of a drought-like situation after three years.

IMD Director-General Laxman Singh Rathore, however, said the monsoon in August was expected to be normal but rainfall in September appeared set to turn unfavourable for the country due to warming of Central Pacific Ocean, known as the El Nino phenomenon.

The Central Pacific Ocean is expected to experience a warming of the sea surface temperature by 0.5 to 0.7 degrees celsius.

Since its shaky onset in June, the southwest Monsoon has witnessed 19 per cent deficient rains in the first two months of the four-month rain season, prompting experts to draw comparisons with drought years of 2002 or even worse in 1918.

In 2002, rainfall deficiency for June-September season was 19 per cent while in 1918 it was 28 per cent.