September 28, 2022 9:31 PM

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20th Party Congress need to give clear message that Chinese economy will open up more as ADB, World Bank, OECD cut Chinese growth outlook

Amid a sluggish growth outlook for Chinese economy by multilateral organisations and financial institutions, President of European Union Chamber of Commerce in China (EUCCC), Joerg Wuttke said that the new line up of the Chinese leadership after the 20th party congress will have to give clear signal to the world that China is committed to economic reforms and more opening up. In an exclusive interview with Prasar Bharati Special Correspondent in Beijing, Joerg Wuttke said there has to be clear signal that China is not turning away from the world and not isolated, and this will be important to restore the eroding confidence of foreign companies in China as an investment destination.<br />''<br />''The World Bank, on Tuesday, kept China's GDP growth forecast at just 2.8% for 2022, while the rest of the East Asia and the Pacific region (23-country region) was expected to grow 5.3% on average, more than double 2021's 2.6% rise. China's divergent path put its GDP growth behind its neighbours for the first time since 1990 Covid-zero policies and the housing market crisis have put China's economic growth behind the rest of the Asia-Pacific region for the first time in more than 30 years, according to World Bank forecasts. On Monday the OECD also predicted a Chinese slowdown to 3.2% this year, "but policy support could help growth recover in 2023". Last week the Asian Development Bank also downgraded its forecast for China's 2022 growth, from 5% in April to 3.3%. It also predicted China's GDP in 2023 would now only grow 4.5% instead of 4.8%. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its 2023 economic growth forecast for China sharply to 4.5% from previous 5.3%, predicting Beijing will stick to its stringent Covid Zero policies through at least the first quarter of next year.<br />''<br />''Just ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party which begins on October 16, the EUCCC released its annual position paper on China last week and said that China's move away from the rest of the world due to the restrictions imposed under its COVID-19 policy indicates that, at the moment, 'ideology is trumping the economy' in China. It said that rational decision making in Chinese government has been challenged by ideology viz. zero COVID policy, carbon neutrality implementation problem and geopolitical tensions this year have rapidly eroded the county's standing as investment destination.<br />''<br />''The paper argues that China's COVID policy is inflexible and inconsistently implemented and that they threaten economic growth. In a survey conducted by the Chamber in April 2022, 75 percent of respondents said that the COVID policy had a negative impact on overall operations. Respondents reported that the uncertainty the policy creates is its most significant challenge. The paper argued that the Chinese government should focus on fully vaccinating the population and providing boosters and predicted that China will not fully open its borders until at least the second half of 2023.<br />''<br />''At the 20th party congress, Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to be reaffirmed for a precedent-breaking third term, and with heightened political sensitivity there have been no signs of any relaxation of strict Covid rules which has often come at odds with the economic measures proposed by the Chinese state council led by Premier Li Keqiang.<br />''<br />''Mr. Wuttke said politicization of business in China is not in favour of anyone. He said this process of politicization started last year when China cracked down on private entrepreneurs including Alibaba's Jack Ma, wiping out trillions of US dollars in equity value. "Clearly, it was a political drive into gaming, into tutorial which sometimes had good underlining reasons for it but at the same time, it had certainly had huge impact on minds of Chinese private entrepreneurs. So that has been creeping in and party congress will give us a signal if that continues," he said.<br />''<br />''The Chamber urged that China should make more pragmatic efforts to rebuild investor confidence and continue its reform and opening up. Joerg Wuttke said that companies are actively looking for diversification of their businesses to other countries including India because it is easy for executives to easily fly in for business purposes as against China.<br />'' <br />''In a significant development, Apple has begun making iPhone 14s in Chennai, India, as it moves some production away from China for the first time against a backdrop of Chinese Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns and geopolitical tensions between the US and China. The move, which marks the first time the company has assembled iPhones outside of China in the same year they were released, is part of a plan to separate its manufacturing operations from China.<br />

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